Strange time - buying gold and commodity?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKvC3r_5a4k

Doug Casey was correct in many of his predictions:

The commodity is probably at the bottom, gold mining company might be a good target to invest.

When interest rates go up, the bond market will collapse.

The city will revive, the suburb is a lifestyle that will disappear.

Howard Marks and OakTree Capital

He earns more during the downturn - 18% per year.  His memo is something worth reading -  even Buffet reads it as soon as he gets it. His dividend stock is yielding 7.5%.

As I shift more to income type of investment, and especially in the coming downturn, worth looking.

Simple Taiwan ETF TW50

Viewed an investment advise on retirement investing - buying TW50, which reliably payout >4% for the dividend.  If someone can sale and buy 4 times a year using Stochastic Ocililoar KD index (<20 buy graduate, >80 sell gradually), one can expect to double the yield.  If this is done is Taiwan, it might be close to tax free - effectively generate >10% return.

So for NT$10M, it can generate NT800K a year, not too bad for retirement allowance.

The interviewee mentioned something interesting - with Taiwan CD interest rate at 1%, the "risk" is 100%!! since the inflation is about 2-3 percent per year.

ACBFF Aurora Cannabis Inc. CHHE:US

Ah, Cannabis, to be or not to be?

A student, John, in my computer architecture class talked to me about buying stock in the Cannabis industry in light of the Coke Cola announcement that it will be going to the business.

My postdoc student owns CHHE, which is trading to think that it not a valid investment.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/chhe

BHC, ANET, Markel, and the old BRK.A

All interesting, but the stock market is now overvalued.  Need to decide when to sell off.  The month of Oct is usually not a best time for stock.  So may be the end of Sep?

Back in the saddle of investment

2016-2018 is best, and alas, the worst, of time.  Other than the "grand journey" to Mt Sierra, I put a few mils in BHC (the old Vealean) at $33 expecting a quick recovery to about $100, it did not happen.  It actually dropped to $11!!!!  Now is back to about $24, still not happy but it has some hopes.

Bought the ASHR in 2016 expecting the Chinese stock will double in a couple of years because the real estate investment in China has over-inflated the price.  Well, I did not expect the love for real estate is so strong and Trump will engage the trade war with China.  How pointless and sad.

Bright Spots

- google price has doubled over the same period of time.
- sold the Sonoma/Seaside property at $330 and doubled my money back
- bought Gonzalas property at 20% below market and receiving 7% return.

Now the kids are going to college, I should have more time to spend on investment.  Really not for the money, it is, just like Buffet said, for keeping scores.  My lifestyle is simple enough that anything over $200K per year is not going to make any difference.  But if I can $2M per year, that will be different ;)

Reflection on China ETF in Taiwan 00643 深中小

https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=00643

When a country's per capita income approach $10K, its people start to be interested in stock.  China is at the stage now.  However, most China ETF contains too much financial institutions, such as the one I hold ASHR, maybe I should switch to 深中小?